- From a retired PAF pilot
For the PAF to have achieved the remarkable feat of downing five IAF fighter aircraft, including three Rafale within an hour, we must consider that this is not purely a matter of missile range and (No escape Zone) NEZ capabilities. Rafale’s Meteor has an advantage of 20 Kms over that of PL 15. It’s ramjet can sustain energy better than that of PL15. So what happened?
Let me explain.
It’s im a combination of superior Electronic Warfare (EW), Situational Awareness (SA), Tactical Planning, and Coordination. Here’s how the PAF could have done it:
- Superior Situational Awareness: AWACS and GCI Network
AWACS (Airborne Early Warning and Control Systems): PAF’s Saab 2000 Erieye or ZDK-03 Karakoram Eagle providing 360° coverage.
Continuous Ground-Controlled Intercept (GCI), which means J-10C pilots are guided by controllers with a clear picture of the battle space.
Indian Rafales, despite having their Thales RBE2 AESA radar, could not achieve surprise due to being continuously tracked.
Early Detection: Rafales were detected well before they could engage, allowing PAF to position the J-10Cs with an altitude and vector advantage. - Electronic Warfare (EW) Superiority:
PAF deployed Dedicated EW Aircraft (like the DA-20 Falcon with ECM suites).
Active jamming disrupted the Rafales’ radar lock and missile guidance, making it difficult for them to achieve a clean firing solution.
Digital Radio Frequency Memory (DRFM) techniques were used to create false targets, confusing the Rafale pilots and causing them to misfire.
Anti-radiation tactics were employed, where Rafales were baited into using their radars, making them vulnerable to passive targeting. - Decoy and Bait Tactics:
PAF may have launched a mix of J-10Cs and older JF-17s as a bait-and-ambush strategy.
The F16s, JF-17s maintained a lower altitude profile, drawing the Rafales into engagement range, while the J-10Cs used their AESA radar to lock on from beyond visual range.
Rafales were forced into the NEZ of the J-10Cs due to aggressive maneuvering, where PL-15 missiles were most effective.
Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAVs) could also have been used to simulate additional targets, overloading the Rafale pilots. - Meteor Defeat through Kinematics and Countermeasures:
The Meteor’s strength is its long-range and high-energy ramjet sustainer. However, its guidance depends on a solid lock from the Rafale.
PAF’s EW platform could have jammed the data link of the Meteor.
Defensive Maneuvering: The J-10Cs performed high-G defensive maneuvers, staying just outside the Meteor’s NEZ while still being able to launch PL-15s.
Chaff, Flare, and Active Decoys (like the ALQ-218 ECM pod) created a complex electromagnetic environment for the Meteor. - Cooperative Engagement: Networked Combat Doctrine:
Multiple J-10Cs were networked through a secure data link, sharing targeting data in real time.
A single J-10C would achieve radar lock and guide the missile, while others maintained passive or jammed the enemy.
Once the first Rafale was hit, the others were forced into defensive maneuvers, making them vulnerable.
The Rafales, instead of retreating, tried to outmaneuver, losing speed and entering the NEZ of the PL-15. - Leveraging Terrain:
PAF may have used the terrain (mountainous regions) to mask J-10Cs, allowing them to pop up into the engagement zone.
Rafales, coming in from a predictable vector, were forced into a narrow corridor where they could be easily targeted.
This to me is the most crucial point.
- Decisive Leadership and Doctrine:
PAF leadership pre-emptively declared a “No-Fly Zone” near Lahore, providing clarity for pilots on engagement rules.
Clear rules of engagement (ROE) empowered J-10C pilots to fire at the first sign of threat.
The entire scenario was a pre-planned, rehearsed intercept, where PAF leveraged its core strengths — disciplined pilots, superior coordination, and robust EW support.
Lastly, PAF’s mission is to defend the motherland, while IAF is used to project power, keep Kashmir under occupation, regional and global hegemonic ambitions – a delusion called Akhand Bharat.