Seville, July 1, 2025 (Agencies) — A landmark study published in The Lancet has warned that deep cuts to U.S. foreign aid could result in over 14 million avoidable deaths by 2030, highlighting the grave global health repercussions of slashed humanitarian funding.
The report, released as world leaders convene in Spain for the largest UN aid summit in a decade, directly links the dramatic rollback of funding from the U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID) to a potential reversal of two decades of progress in global health.
Until recently, USAID contributed over 40 percent of global humanitarian assistance. However, following the return of Donald Trump to the U.S. presidency in January 2025, funding was cut by 83 percent. The decision, described by the study’s authors as catastrophic, came alongside inflammatory rhetoric—including remarks from Trump’s former adviser Elon Musk, who claimed to have put USAID “through the woodchipper.”
“This funding cut risks abruptly halting—and even reversing—two decades of health gains for vulnerable populations,” said Davide Rasella, co-author of the study and researcher at the Barcelona Institute for Global Health (ISGlobal).
The study assessed data from 133 countries, concluding that USAID funding had helped avert nearly 91 million deaths between 2001 and 2021. It predicted that 14 million new deaths—including more than 4.5 million children under age five—could result from the recent cuts by the end of the decade.
Key findings include:
- A 15% reduction in overall mortality associated with USAID-supported countries
- A 32% decline in child mortality under age five
- 65% fewer HIV/AIDS deaths and nearly 50% reductions in malaria and neglected tropical diseases
The researchers underscored that countries receiving strong USAID support saw significantly better health outcomes across multiple indicators. But with major donors in Germany, the UK, and France also announcing cuts, the compound effect could be devastating.
“The consequences could resemble the human toll of a global pandemic or major armed conflict,” Rasella added.
Despite mounting concerns, the United States will not attend the aid summit underway in Seville. Experts warn that without a reversal, the cascade of donor withdrawals may undermine health systems in low- and middle-income countries.
“U.S. citizens pay around 17 cents a day to support USAID—roughly $64 a year,” noted co-author James Macinko from UCLA. “If more Americans understood how far that small amount goes, they might rally for its return.”
The study concludes with a rallying call: now is the time to scale up, not scale back. The authors emphasize that the projected death toll could still be prevented—if political will matches global need.