- By Ali Inan
In the complex terrain of Middle Eastern geopolitics, the enduring conflict between Israel and Iran casts a shadow that spans across land, sea, air, and cyberspace. Over the course of decades, these regional powers have engaged in a covert struggle, characterized by proxy attacks, targeted assassinations, and intermittent direct confrontations.
Recent escalations, exemplified by Iran’s aerial assault on Israel and the subsequent retaliatory strike on an Iranian air base, have underscored the region’s volatility and stoked concerns of wider conflagration. Amidst these simmering tensions, the signing of the Abraham Accords in September 2020 marked a pivotal moment in Middle Eastern diplomacy.
The historic agreement saw Israel establish normalized relations with several Arab states, including the UAE, Bahrain, Sudan, and Morocco, signalling a notable shift in regional dynamics. Beyond diplomatic formalities, the Accords opened avenues for enhanced cooperation in trade, technology, tourism, and security, challenging entrenched alliances and divisions in the region.
However, the diplomatic breakthrough presented Sunni Arab states with a multifaceted dilemma. While contending with Iran’s expanding influence and support for proxy groups as a threat to regional stability, they also confronted the paradox of normalizing relations with Israel while remaining committed to the Palestinian cause. This juxtaposition underscored the nuanced balancing required to navigate the complex geopolitical landscape of the Middle East.
- The Covert Conflict Between Israel and Iran:
For decades, the Middle East has been a theatre for a covert conflict between Israel and Iran, where both nations have engaged in clandestine operations across various domains, including land, sea, air, and cyberspace. This shadowy confrontation, characterized by proxy attacks, targeted assassinations, and sporadic direct confrontations, has perpetuated regional instability and heightened tensions.
The conflict reached a recent crescendo with Iran’s audacious aerial assault against Israel, followed by Israel’s calculated retaliatory strike on an Iranian air base. These events have thrust the conflict into the spotlight, raising concerns of wider regional destabilization and the potential for a broader, more overt conflict.
The historical context of the Israel-Iran conflict is rife with significant events, including Israel’s targeted airstrikes on Iranian-trained militants in Syria and Iraq and the assassination of Iranian General Qassim Suleimani. These actions have escalated tensions and increased the risk of a wider regional conflict, particularly amidst ongoing tensions in Gaza, Lebanon, and Syria.
Over the past decade, Israel has contemplated various scenarios involving airstrikes targeting Iran’s nuclear infrastructure, particularly centred around Isfahan and the Natanz complex. However, the recent decision by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s war cabinet to refrain from such action speaks volumes about the evolving dynamics in the region.
The subdued response from Israel, coupled with a deliberate silence regarding the limited strike’s outcomes, has prompted speculation and analysis from experts and observers alike. While the strike may have caused minimal damage in Iran, the subsequent downplaying of the incident by Iranian authorities suggests a concerted effort to prevent further escalation.
- The Significance of the Abraham Accords:
Against this backdrop of conflict, the signing of the Abraham Accords in September 2020 represented a watershed moment in Middle Eastern diplomacy. These ground-breaking agreements normalized relations between Israel and several Arab states, including the UAE, Bahrain, Sudan, and Morocco. Beyond establishing formal diplomatic ties, the accords paved the way for enhanced cooperation in economic, technological, and security spheres.
The Abraham Accords heralded a departure from traditional alliances and divisions in the Middle East, offering the promise of greater stability and prosperity in the region. By fostering cooperation and normalization between Israel and Arab states, the accords presented a united front against common threats, including Iran’s destabilizing activities and extremist ideologies.
However, the accords also posed a dilemma for Sunni Arab states, who grappled with the challenge of normalizing relations with Israel while balancing their longstanding support for the Palestinian cause. This internal debate highlighted divisions within the Arab world, with some countries embracing diplomatic normalization to advance their own interests, while others remained hesitant due to domestic and regional political considerations.
- Sunni Arab States’ Foreign Policy Dilemma:
Sunni Arab states find themselves at a crossroads, facing a complex foreign policy dilemma shaped by the regional rivalry between Iran and Israel. On one hand, many Sunni Arab states view Iran’s expanding influence and support for proxy groups as a direct threat to their security and stability. Iran’s involvement in conflicts across Syria, Yemen, and Iraq exacerbates tensions and undermines efforts towards regional cooperation.
On the other hand, Sunni Arab states must navigate the challenge of normalizing relations with Israel while maintaining support for the Palestinian cause. The Abraham Accords have exposed divisions within the Arab world, with some countries embracing diplomatic normalization to advance their interests, while others remain hesitant due to domestic and regional political considerations.
For Sunni Arab states, striking the right balance in their foreign policy decisions is essential. They must weigh the benefits of cooperation with Israel against the risks of alienating their populations and traditional allies. Moreover, they must carefully calibrate their policies to mitigate tensions and promote stability in a volatile geopolitical landscape.
To sum up, the Israel-Iran conflict, the Abraham Accords, and the foreign policy dilemmas faced by Sunni Arab states are interconnected elements shaping the Middle East’s geopolitical landscape. As regional dynamics continue to evolve, diplomatic efforts and strategic considerations will play a crucial role in determining the future of the region.
The writer is a PhD scholar in English Literature, a Lawyer, and an International Relations analyst.